Third-forcers are mis-reading Kenyan politics and misleading Kenyans; CORD and Jubilee are the same force, where is the second force?

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You have heard of an emergent reference to a third force in Kenyan politics and the concept is gaining currency. The concept is however a mis-reading of the current political dispensation and is misleading Kenyans. For us to have a third force, we must have a first and a second. That is simple mathematics. The talk of a third force assumes and validates the existence of a first and a second force. It is wrong. There are currently no two forces in Kenyan politics that would justify a third. There is only one. A singular Kakistocrasy of former Moi-men calling themselves CORD and Jubilee. They are not even siamese twins. They are a hydra that grows different heads every election year. Moi-men who have mutated into tribal overlords and who stand for nothing apart from the acquisition and preservation of power.

The tribal configurations that these Moi orphans form come by many names, and that is where the misreading comes from. Because they are currently presenting themselves in a frivolous divide called CORD and Jubilee, those talking of a third force have assumed that these are two distinct forces. They are wrong. This is only the current configuration of the power hungry KANUnnites. The configuration changes, the players remain the same.  The objective remains the grabbing and preservation of power and the method is, has been and will always remain ethnicity, impunity and mediocrity, siasa ya ukabila, ukora na upuzi.

Changing Tribal Configurations

In 1997 the configuration was KANU, DP, NDP, FORD- Asili,  FORD-Kenya et al; Post 1997 elections, NDP was swallowed by KANU and  vomited  in 2002 as LDP; In 2002 the regurgitated LDP joined NAK to form NARC and went to the elections against KANU; in 2007 the configuration was ODM and PNU, and in 2013 the configuration was Jubilee and CORD. In all instances, it was the same players who changed from one configuration to the other with ease.  In 2017 the tribal configurations will change depending on the possibilities of grabbing power. I suspect that Jubilee will stick together because of incumbency, CORD will most likely disintegrate as dirty money from the incumbents entices its hungry mongrels who have been five years out of power. Only Jubilee has the chance of going into the next elections together to protect incumbency, it will disintegrate soon after, evaporate and condense into different tribal and corrupt political outfits by the next general election in 2022.

The question is why is it important for us not to mis-read this situation, as is being done by the third-forcers?

Several reasons.

Why the third-forcers are wrong

First, you cannot solve a problem which you have mis-read and misunderstood. The third-forcers having mis-read the situation are therefore misleading those Kenyans who want change. By assuming that CORD and jubilee are two forces, some Kenyans are lost in the debate of who is better than the other. This is a useless debate. The current political set up are the same monkey with two heads, the same coin, and unfortunately it is tails on both sides. I have consistently made the argument that the discussion of “better than the other” does not apply to these two. I have made the argument before that in 2013 the only choice we had was between the bad and the ugly. Since the 2013 elections, the bad has gotten badder and the ugly has gotten uglier. See http://profmichaelwainaina.com/2016/03/07/of-a-feckless-jubilee-and-cord-kakistocrasy-and-the-optimists-alternative-narrative/ and also http://profmichaelwainaina.com/2016/06/04/this-is-what-a-divided-nation-looks-like-and-this-is-how-things-fall-apart-we-urgently-and-desperately-need-a-new-non-ethnic-political-narrative/. To make a distinction between CORD and jubilee is to tell Kenyans that given the choice between the badder and the uglier, there is a better choice. This is unfortunately the message being inadvertently sent by third-forcers.  It is incorrect.

Second, pushing the third force argument is also validating the “devil you know argument”. I have consistently pushed the argument that there is no difference between CORD and Jubilee. Some of my responders agree with me, but based on the ethnic background of the responder, they will tell you “better the devil you know’. Unfortunately the devil in this argument is decided by ethnic alliances. Those from Jubilee prefer the devil who shares their name and language and those from CORD prefer the devil who shares their name and language. Like some pundit once said, “If your choice is between the lesser of two evils, you will only get the evil of the two lessers”. If you do not get the tribalism, corruption and status quo of Jubilee, you will get the tribalism, corruption, anarchy and discord of CORD. The devil is the devil. By pushing an argument that assumes a difference between CORD and Jubilee, the third-forcers instead of becoming the alternative they imagine themselves to be, they are validating “the devil you know” argument. They are undermining themselves.

The political class VS The People

This buttresses my argument that the third-forcers have mis-read our situation. They fail to discern that the configuration of politics in Kenya is not CORD Vs Jubilee.  It is the political class (CORD & Jubilee) Vs the people. What is needed is not a third force, it is an alternative; a non-ethnic pro-people force to counter the current political class in CORD & jubilee. I see the forces interacting as illustrated in the diagram below:

The CORD Jubilee Vs The People Matrix

The CORD/Jubilee Vs The People Matrix

So, where is the force that the third-forcers have been preaching about? If you were to split the current political class in to two forces, how will the attributes change between CORD and jubilee? The attributes that define CORD  are the same ones that define jubilee. How can they be two distinct forces? The political class are co-conspirators in all the ills that bedevil the people and they are guilty of imposing these ills on all of us. They are the problem. Together. Trying to categorize them as a first and second force is to imply that part of them are the solution. They are not. The only hope is an alternative political narrative through which a new political dispensation will emerge.

For us to provide a solution to the long suffering Kenyans, we must have the right diagnosis of the problem. The third-forcers have missed the diagnosis by a mile.

My argument of an alternative non-ethnic narrative to mobilize against the current political class in CORD & Jubilee has been dismissed before. Not because of its implausibility, but because of its perceived improbability. Where my detractors agree that it is desirable and that it is not impossible, they look at the madness and noise that has been created by the KANUnnites in CORD and jubilee, the threats being issued, the apparent hopelessness and helplessness of the people and they conclude that a successful new non-ethnic political narrative is improbable.

It is Sherlock Holmes who said, “When you remove the impossible, whatever remains however improbable is the truth”. And a new non-ethnic alternative  political narrative however improbable is the truth. I have been called a dreamer, an idealist and even an idle ivory-tower theorist.

I disagree.

Politics is the art of the possible and everything that is plausible is probable. Our problem in this country is not the political class, it is inability to imagine the alternative, the probable. The third-forcers make it impossible to conceptualize the alternative by first mis-reading the problem and misleading the people that what is needed is a third force. There is no second force. What is needed is an alternative to the current political class. It is our responsibility to imagine it. That we cannot or will not does not mean that it is not the solution. It is.

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28 comments

  1. This is an attempt to paint Cord and Jubilee with the same brush, in the hope that Kenyans will see no need to remove Jubilee.

    Look at Uganda, Museveni and Besigye were once good friends, both in NRM, does it mean that FDC is not a second force??
    In South Africa, Malema was once in ANC, does it mean EFF is not a distinct force? Etc etc

    Yes, some characters in Cord are not genuine change agents ie Wetangula etc but does that mean we smear all by the same brush just because once they were under same roof?? Illogical and dishonest

    • So Wetangula is bad and Raila good? I beg to differ. I fail to understand how Raila is supposed to present an alternative narrative. I have said that the problem with the current political dispensation is politics of ethnicity, impunity and mediocrity, siasa ya ukabila, ukora na upuzi. This is the politics that is practiced by the six tribal overlords at the helm of the current political establishment. All of them. Uhuru, Ruto, Raila, Mudavadi, Kalonzo and Wetangula. If you remove siasa ya ukabila, ukora na upuzi, these guys are finished, all of them. I have written extensively about them and what they represent. Raila claims to be different. He is not.
      Let’s take the issue of Ukabila.
      Raila was the first politician to turn tribal arithmetic into a formula of winning elections in 2007. He mobilized the country on the basis of 41 Vs 1 in one of the most ethnically acrimonious campaigns this country has ever seen. Unfortunately for him, his equally tribal colleagues in the blood-soaked coalition government learnt well. In 2013 they took his formula and tweaked it to 2 Vs 40. He lost (expect him to say the election was stolen). My guess is that if he continues on the tribal narrative, like he is bound to do because he has no other, he will lose to the Jubilee tribalists in 2017. The talk about stolen elections bring me to the issue of his sisasa ya ukora.
      When Raila talks about stealing elections, I shake my head. His own ODM elections in Kasarani were conducted by thugs known as men-in-black. After that he distributed the seats in a poisoned boardroom deal. Read: “Ababu Namwamba mounted & rode the ODM Tiger then disembarked, it will devour him”. Here
      http://profmichaelwainaina.com/2016/07/10/ababu-namwamba-mounted-rode-the-odm-tiger-then-disembarked-it-will-devour-him/
      After the men-in-black did their thing as instructed, he promised an investigation, a report in 2 weeks and prosecutions. Nothing has happened to date. I find it interesting when you say he will implement the Ndungu and the TJRC report. How can he when his own elections in ODM are conducted by men in black? How can he when he promised us investigations and a report on the chaos at Kasarani in two weeks? Where is the report? He has never released a report. What is the difference between him and those who have been promising us reports? What is the difference between him and those who have been sitting on reports that they know expose them?
      On the same subject of Ukora, what moral authority does Raila have to say that IEBC cannot conduct free and fair elections when his own elections are conducted by men- in black? Read “Vilified IEBC seems doomed but, we mustn’t replace it with men-in-black” here http://profmichaelwainaina.com/2016/04/30/vilified-iebc-seems-doomed-but-we-mustnt-replace-it-with-men-in-black/
      Kenyan politicians are shameless. His own MPs have rejected the party hopping clause that he and jubilee had inserted in the Parliamentary select committee on the IEBC report. The MPs know that he and ODM are incapable of conducting free and fair nominations and therefore they need a fall-back position that he and jubilee do not want. If his own MPs cannot trust him to carry our free and fair elections, how is he an alternative?
      When we say we want an alternative, it must be an alternative. Not more of the same. There is no evidence that Raila is different from the other tribal kingpins in CORD and jubilee. I have said before that there is no difference between the two. It is only that jubilee is on the inside and overeating and CORD is on the outside and overshouting.

    • Well, like I said, you are dishonest and desperately trying to liken the two, while hoping this will sway Kenyans to stick with the devils they know aka Jubilee.

      On party hopping, Olago Oluoch is in Ford Kenya (Cord) and any MP is independent enough to think independently… if Raila had forced them to accept it without amendment, you would be here shouting loudest about dictatorship.
      You can’t have your cake and eat it.

      Finally, in all democracies there is always something that galvanizes the electorates; in USA it is race. In Kenya it is tribes, in homogeneous Muslim countries, it is clan etc.
      You can’t go around analyzing Kenya without factoring we aren’t a real nation, just a cobbled up colonial zone with no shared common values.

      Be honest, even as you (a thinly veiled cocoonist) wait for a inconceivable third party miracle.

    • Mc’Olonde Charles I am waiting for a conceivable alternative not a third party. There is no need for a third party. We do not have two coalitions called CORD and Jubilee we have the same Kakistocrasy of tribal warlords. They are the ones who have made tribe their only way of galvanizing the masses. Please do not misrepresent history by saying that in the USA what galvanizes the country is race. Are you serious? In any case, must we be tribal because other people are racial??

      About the mischievous clause on party hopping that had been sneaked in by the tribal warlords in CORD and jubilee by their vibaraka in the select committee of the IEBC, please do not try to exonerate Raila who has been humiliated by his own MPs who can only expect a men-in-black nomination in ODM and they know it. He said the report must be passed without altering a coma or a full-stop. His MPs are not as stupid as he thinks. I can guarantee you that the clause will be removed, the main parties will conduct thuggish and shambolic nomination and people will party hop.

      It is hypocritical for the tribal warlords in CORD and jubilee to try and curtail MPs from party hopping. Are there any bigger party hoppers than they? Raila: Fork-K, NDP, KANU, LDP, NARC, ODM, CORD and heaven knows whatever else he is cooking for 2017: Uhuru: KANU-PNU-TNA-JAP-JP and heaven knows what else!! They should be ashamed of themselves. If party hopping is good for them, it is good for others too.

    • I find it callous that you are more concerned with painting Cord as not an alternative when you should be busy building your perfect alternative… I smell mischief, all these analysis are meant to hoodwink Kenyans into not interrogating Jubilee failures by keeping them busy talking about Raila.

      Finally, there is something called human nature. Electorates have to be mobilized through their distinct groupings ie race, tribe, religion, clan etc anything else is academic

    • Mc’Olonde Charles Please read all my articles. For you to say that I am hoodwinking anybody on behalf of jubilee means you have not read my articles. I get more venom from jubilee supporters that you can imagine. Read. You are wrong. There are very many other basis of political mobilization apart from racial and tribal ones. In fact only demagogues and empty politicians like the ones in CORD and jubilee rely on tribe and race and clan to mobilize politically. Mature politicians and statesmen mobilize on hope, prosperity, exclusivity, nationalism, progress and inspiration.

  2. Prof i believe the theory of Cognitive Dissonance applies here in totality, People are not stupid, the facts are their, Cord and Jubilee are made of a generation of peers politically and ideologically. The supporters choose tribalism to excuse intentional stupidity. With that intent, Cord cannot win unless Ruto joins them.. Its fact

  3. I read the thread and what I get is intellectual frauds. A serious analysis will involve interrogating the ruling coalition then forming the best alternative.

    The obsession with CORD and the constant reference to Raila is a charade meant to entertain the masses while conditioning them to re-elect the failures, in the guise of devils they know.

    If you are competing for a trophy and someone gets obsessed with the runner-up, then the want the holder to retain it. They are just acolytes of the high priest of corruption (Ruto) and incompetence (Uhuru).

  4. That’s because the people in power are Uhuru n Ruto, the issue is a similar group wants to replace them by discrediting them, they have no moral right to stand on a moral high group. BOTH SIDES HAVE CORRUPT GORVERNORS WHO ARE NEVER HELD ACCOUNTABLE SO your obsessive support turns a blind eye to their faults. You simply want your “person.”Simple, better preach i am a tribalist voter rather pretend to have legit reasons. Speaking of which are jubilee n Cord the only options for Kenyans??? Thats the propaganda both jubilee n Cord are brainwashing you to believe

  5. The whole premise is incredulous… there is Jubilee currently in power but instead of those dissatisfied with their rule concentrate on forming their perfect alternatives, you are here dragging Cord into it.

    Form yours, acha kelele.

  6. Prof where could the second force emerge from? From another country or planet? I think it just depends on the angle from which you r carrying out your definition…

    • Because I really do not care what CORD and Jubilee think of themselves. I have consistently observed though that CORD supporters are irked by the argument that there is no difference between the two. This is because they would like to present themselves as an alternative. They are not. I have explained this in most of my articles.

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